jueves, 1 de octubre de 2009

Razonamiento inductivo y deductivo.

Tipos de Pensamiento:

La psicología cognitiva ha basado fundamentalmente sus investigaciones en tres aspectos:
- El razonamiento deductivo,
- El razonamiento inductivo y
- La resolución de problemas.

EL RAZONAMIENTO DEDUCTIVO:

El pensamiento deductivo parte de categorías generales para hacer afirmaciones sobre casos particulares. Va de lo general a lo particular. Es una forma de razonamiento donde se infiere una conclusión a partir de una o varias premisas. El filósofo griego Aristóteles, con el fin de reflejar el pensamiento racional, fue el primero en establecer los principios formales del razonamiento deductivo. Por ejemplo, si se afirma que todos los seres humanos cuentan con una cabeza y dos brazos y que Pepe es un ser humano, debemos concluir que Pepe debe tener una cabeza y dos brazos. Es éste un ejemplo de silogismo, un juicio en el que se exponen dos premisas de las que debe deducirse una conclusión lógica. Pero no todos los ejemplos son tan claros. La lógica convencional, parte de que hay dos valores únicos de verdad en los enunciados lógicos: "verdadero" o "falso", sin embargo algunos lingüistas admiten un tercer valor: "ni verdadero ni falso". Lo que ocurre es que en todo enunciado lógico hay unas presuposiciones, o lo que es lo mismo, se parte de unas suposiciones a priori.

*Por ejemplo, analicemos las siguientes frases:

a. El actual rey de Francia es calvo.
b. El actual rey de Francia no es calvo.

¿Cuál es verdadera y cuál es falsa?. Estamos presuponiendo ya desde el principio que hay un rey en Francia. Bajo este presupuesto podríamos pensar: si una es verdadera la otra es falsa y viceversa. Sin embargo, ambas frases ni son verdaderas ni falsas, si tenemos en cuenta que no hay tal rey en Francia.

*Otro ejemplo podría ser:

a. Luis ha dejado de fumar.
b. Luis no ha dejado de fumar.

En este caso presuponemos que Luis ha fumado alguna vez y bajo este presupuesto podemos cometer el error de considerar una de las dos frases como verdadera. Otro tipo de error, se ve reflejado por ejemplo, cuando decimos "Luis mide 1,70 metros y es alto". La frase igualmente puede ser verdadera que falsa, dependiendo del contexto. Si a Luis se le compara con un grupo de enanos es verdadera, si se le compara con un grupo de deportistas de baloncesto, es falsa.

Para finalizar, vamos a utilizar como ejemplo la famosa frase del poeta griego del siglo VI a. de C., Epiménides: "Todos los cretenses son mentirosos", siendo él mismo cretense. Fácilmente puede verse que la frase da lugar a una contradicción lógica. La frase no puede ser verdadera porque entonces Epimérides sería mentiroso y por tanto lo que él nos dice sería falso. Por otro lado, la frase tampoco puede ser falsa porque se deduciría entonces que los cretenses son veraces y por tanto Epimérides diría la verdad, y él es cretense. Por tanto este enunciado no puede ser ni verdadero ni falso.

De todo esto concluimos que la lógica, llena de razonamientos aparentemente impecables, tiene algo de arbitrario y que es un formalismo que no necesariamente refleja las leyes del pensamiento, conduciéndonos muchas veces a obvias contradicciones.


EL RAZONAMIENTO INDUCTIVO:

Por otro lado, el pensamiento inductivo es aquel proceso en el que se razona partiendo de lo particular para llegar a lo general, justo lo contrario que con la deducción. La base de la inducción es la suposición de que si algo es cierto en algunas ocasiones, también lo será en situaciones similares aunque no se hayan observado. Una de las formas más simples de inducción, ocurre cuando con la ayuda de una serie de encuestas, de las que se obtienen las respuestas dadas por una muestra, es decir, por una pequeña parte de la población total, nos permitimos extraer conclusiones acerca de toda una población.

Con bastante frecuencia realizamos en nuestra vida diaria dos tipos de operaciones inductivas, que se denominan predicción y causalidad.

La predicción consiste en tomar decisiones o planear situaciones, basándonos en acontecimientos futuros predecibles, como por ejemplo ocurre cuando nos planteamos: ¿qué probabilidades de trabajo tengo si hago esta carrera? Con las evidencias de que disponemos inducimos una probabilidad, y tomamos una decisión.

Muchos filósofos han puesto de manifiesto la insuficiencia lógica de la inducción como método de razonamiento.

La causalidad, por otro lado, también nos induce a error en muchas ocasiones. La causalidad es la necesidad que tenemos de atribuir causas a los fenómenos que ocurren a nuestro alrededor. Por ejemplo, la atribución causal que hacemos ante un accidente de coche va a depender de quien la realice, enfatizando así una de las causas y minimizando el resto. Si la atribución la hace un meteorólogo es posible que considere que la causa del accidente fue la niebla, si la hace un psicólogo, posiblemente lo atribuya al estrés, si la hace un mecánico sería el mal estado del coche, etc. Lo cierto es que ese día, probablemente hubiera algo de niebla, el conductor estuviera algo estresado y las ruedas del coche seguramente no estarían en perfecto estado. ¿No podría hacerse una atribución multicausal?, Es decir ¿no podría ser que todos los factores, cada uno en cierta medida, hubieran podido influir en que se desencadenase el accidente? Lo cierto es que hay una tendencia en general a darle fuerza a una única causa, minimizando al resto, y eso trae como consecuencia lo que podríamos llamar errores de pensamiento.

Para resumir, podemos concluir diciendo que en el razonamiento deductivo, se parte de lo general para llegar a lo particular, que la conclusión está siempre contenida en las premisas de las que se parte y que además las conclusiones obtenidas corresponden con la lógica, sin embargo, en el razonamiento inductivo, se parte de lo particular para llegar a lo general, se obtienen conclusiones que sólo resultan probables a partir de las premisas y que además las conclusiones extraídas se fundamentan en la estadística.



Fuente: Saludalia

Renato Oviedo P.
Coordinador de la Asignatura.
Procesos Cognitivos II.


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